Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions (2024)

The Boston Red Sox (12-10) and Pittsburgh Pirates (11-10) wrap up a 3-game interleague series at PNC Park Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 2-0, outscoringPittsburgh 12-3 1st 2 games of the series and winning each as a slight underdog

The Red Sox posted a 4-2 win Saturday as slight +105 underdogs (+105) with the Under (7.5) cashing. Boston has picked up 3 wins in its past 4 outings, and it has won 3 in a row on the road. The Under is 6-3 in the previous 9 contests.

The Pirates have dropped 5 in a row, and the offense has dried up dramatically. Pittsburgh has scored a total of just 8 runs during the skid — that’s 1.6 runs per game (RPG). The pitching has coughed up 4 or more runs per game, however, and the Over is 4-2 across the past 6 contests. Pittsburgh has dropped each of its past 3 home games.

Red Sox at Pirates projected starters

RHP Josh Winckowski vs. LHP Martin Perez

Winckowski (1-1, 4.63 ERA) makes his 1st start and 8th appearance in 2024. He has a 2.06 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9 and 13.1 K/9 in 11 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-5 win at New York Yankees Aug. 20, 2023
• 2024 road splits: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (5 IP, 0 ER — 4 R), 3 H, 3 BB, 9 K and .158 opponent batting average in 3 relief appearances
• Career vs. Pirates: 0-1, 7.88 ERA (8 IP, 7 ER), 9 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K, 1.375 WHIP in 1 start and 1 relief appearance

Perez (1-0, 2.55 ERA) makes his 5th start in 2024. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 24 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 6-3 loss at New York Mets Monday
• Last home start: No-decision, 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 5-3 loss vs. Detroit Tigers April 9
• Career vs. Red Sox: 5-2, 4.28 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 60 H, 4 HR, 24 BB, 31 K, 1.537 WHIP in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Red Sox at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:07 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Pirates -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-175) | Pirates -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Red Sox at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 6, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

The PIRATES (-140) are a solid play in Sunday’s series finale as the Bucs look to salvage something in the 3-game set after dropping the first 2 outings.

Perez is solid, and the Bucs are 2-2 in his first 4 starts this season. The Bucs should be able to get to Winckowski, who is pitching in an opener role for the BoSox (+115).

Run line/Against the spread

The PIRATES -1.5 (+145) are worth a look on the run line. While Pittsburgh hasn’t won since April 14, dropping 5 in a row, the past 3 wins for the Bucs since April 8 have been by 3 or more runs.

The Red Sox have covered on the run line in 4 straight as an underdogs, winning outright in 3 of those games.

Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-115) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play only.

The Under has cashed in 6 of the past 9 games for the Red Sox, but starting an opener before turning it over to the bullpen is a little worrisome for Boston.

The Over has cashed in 4 of the past 6 games for the Pirates, and the Over is 3-1 in the first 4 starts for Perez, too.

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